I think that would make the difference. It might not seem like only turn one would make that much difference. But in most of my club's games the submarines very often "clash" in the middle of the map on the first turn. How that volley of torpedoes "rolls" often makes a big difference in sub strength right off the bat.
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Suprise probably should have dropped on the transitiom from asw 3 to 4. As the point of the change was to give a more cosisistent later year option than the 39-41 asw staples.