Post by mnnorthstars on Aug 5, 2020 19:52:53 GMT
If you’ve played a couple of games, chances are that you realize how hard it is to win initiative vs. an opponent with Flag 2 above what you can put out there. But just how hard is it really? I did the math.
If your opponent rolls +2 above what you can put on your initiative bonus, you will only win initiative 23.9% of the time. That’s lousy considering how you have a 50% chance with no bonuses. But what about if you have Flag 1 and he has Flag 2? Same as if you has no flag and he had Flag 1, 31.7% chance. If you’re going up against a Flotilla Leader or any other +3 advantage over your fleet, your odds plummet down to just a 15.9% chance. San Francisco with Flag 1 and Flotilla Leader? You only win 9.7% of the time. And the last one I did, where you are -5 to your opponent, you only win 6.2% of the time. So be wary of the Flag 2, Flotilla Leader combo. But you know, that 1 in 10 chance vs. +4 initiative might just come up on the turn you need it most, so you never know.
Opponent has no bonus, you have 50% chance of winning initiative
Opponent has +1, you have 31.7% chance
Opponent has +2, you have 23.9% chance
Opponent has +3, you have 15.9% chance
Opponent has +4, you have 9.7% chance
Opponent has +5, you have 6.2% chance
If your opponent rolls +2 above what you can put on your initiative bonus, you will only win initiative 23.9% of the time. That’s lousy considering how you have a 50% chance with no bonuses. But what about if you have Flag 1 and he has Flag 2? Same as if you has no flag and he had Flag 1, 31.7% chance. If you’re going up against a Flotilla Leader or any other +3 advantage over your fleet, your odds plummet down to just a 15.9% chance. San Francisco with Flag 1 and Flotilla Leader? You only win 9.7% of the time. And the last one I did, where you are -5 to your opponent, you only win 6.2% of the time. So be wary of the Flag 2, Flotilla Leader combo. But you know, that 1 in 10 chance vs. +4 initiative might just come up on the turn you need it most, so you never know.
Opponent has no bonus, you have 50% chance of winning initiative
Opponent has +1, you have 31.7% chance
Opponent has +2, you have 23.9% chance
Opponent has +3, you have 15.9% chance
Opponent has +4, you have 9.7% chance
Opponent has +5, you have 6.2% chance
