I would say when the second set came out. There was an almost two year wait and the first set had already been reprinted once (and would be reprinted a second time).
At that point purchasing was at a frenzy. But the first signs of decline were showing when some people dropped out because of the reprints of the same molds, and some people dropped out because of the Graf Zeppelin "fantasy" ship. These were what I called "hard core historical naval gamers/simulationists" that didn't understand the collectible miniatures business model. Even so, Set II sold very, very well. The actual decline probably started with Set III, but really took a drop with Set IV. WotC ended up printing way too many of those sets. After that they cut way back on Sets V and VI even though those were more popular than Set IV and sold out fairly quickly. But it was too late. WotC management never liked the game, and the huge backlog inventory of Sets III and IV put the nail in the coffin IMO.
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Set IV was a bad set IMO. It had too many minor nations, and didn't have many "big plastic" BBs or CVs. That just didn't sell. RB was listening too much to the vocal minority fans. He tried to reverse it with Sets V and VI, but it was too late.
Set IV is popular with the minor nation players and with the more historical players because the set filled in some important gaps. But it wasn't attractive to the mainstream. RB put too many "corner shelf" units in that set. I blame that set for the rapid demise of the game. Especially within WotC management. RB's budget was significantly reduced for Sets V and VI. ( I know that from personal discussion.) He was hoping he could hold on for one more set, but it wasn't to be.
Why did wotc management not like the game? Was there specific reasons?
The game using both the axis and allies branding and the name war at sea which itself has alot of gaming nostalgia for the older Avalon Hill game should have given it a soft spot with the company you think. (Great detailed posts by the way thanks for the insight).
RB himself posted way back then that War at Sea was the "Aleutian Campaign" project at WotC. I have talked to several ex-employee's that said the land game was supported by somebody in senior management, but the sea game never really had much internal interest. Sales of the first set surprised everyone, but it still wasn't enough to make the bean-counters happy. Evidently the game/comic book store owners were the one's who demanded a second set. The game was bringing customers into the stores they had never seen before. That I was told directly. My guess is that later on the interest of the "brick and mortar" stores declined as on-line sales began to get a lot of the business. The rapid decline of the land game at the same time probably didn't help. That game got 11 sets despite terrible sales of the later sets. (Looking at you re-scale!) Again, the land game evidently had a management "benefactor" that the sea game did not.
Bottom line, War at Sea was never big enough to really make the profits WotC/Hasbro wanted. Probably another way of saying it wasn't "Magic the Gathering."
I think there would have been a final set with Set VII if it hadn't been for the Dungeon's and Dragon's personnel purge. RB's main job was working on Dungeons and Dragons. The A & A miniatures games were literally "side projects" for him. He lost his job when WotC eliminated much of the D & D development team because the game was not doing well. How he managed to do all of that is beyond me. He was lead developer for all three A&A miniatures games, plus a lead developer for D & D. For all the nitpicking we do over the game it is amazing to me how much WWII historical and technical knowledge he had.
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I "discovered " WAS after playing that failed WOTC star wars game starship battles and lots of people mentioning that it should have used WAS system instead.
I think it was you weeds who said that WOTC had asked RB about maybe looking into fixing the gameplay of Starship battles and while they decided to let starship battles die after one set it would have been interesting if other games like it adapted WAS's gameplay system in more mainstream themes perhaps it would have given the game a bit more exposure and appreciation of the game system. Historical theme aside WAS is still a very fun game to play which you cant always say about many wargames.
For me its hard to say when WAS was at its peak, i was introduced at Historicon 2010 just after Set IV was released.
It was still possible to buy Set 1 reasonably, I paid 160 at the meeting; Set 2 was hard to come buy, but i've paid as little as 60 bucks for Sets 3 and 4.
People such as Weeds who have spoken with RB and knowing him do have some nice input on the games history,
but for me being a long time gamer it was just the right blend of History and ease of play, so i gravitated right to it.
I do know one thing it hit bottom when WOTC let RB go. So following the game these past almost 10 years, i've got my ups and downs about
were we are going.
Love to see new interest in the game, but it does astonish me when I go to most convention its not played or even known.
Guess you just have to say;; We're still here and i think for a bit longer.